San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 45.9%

SJS: 54.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.16

SJS: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	CHI	SJS
Season SV%	0.909	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	17	15	2	88.2%	1.74	0	-0.26
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	24	19	5	79.2%	3.06	3	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CHI at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	CHI 5 - 2 SJS	CHI	SJS
2026-04-06	SJS 3 - 2 CHI	SJS	SJS
2026-02-02	CHI 6 - 3 SJS	CHI	CHI
2025-03-13	SJS 4 - 2 CHI	SJS	SJS
2024-10-31	SJS 3 - 2 CHI	SJS	SJS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	7	1	0.62
1	SJS	10	0	0.77
2	CHI	11	1	1.06
2	SJS	9	0	0.59
3	CHI	19	1	1.38
3	SJS	9	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown