St. Louis Blues at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-04-16 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 57.8%

STL: 42.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.97

STL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	UTA	STL
Season SV%	0.895	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	24	5	82.8%	3.82	2	-1.18
STL	Joel Hofer	23	20	3	87.0%	2.64	2	-0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • UTA at home vs STL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	UTA 3 - 5 STL	STL	UTA
2026-01-09	UTA 4 - 2 STL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-29	STL 1 - 0 UTA	STL	UTA
2025-10-23	STL 4 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-04-15	STL 6 - 1 UTA	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	15	0	0.64
1	STL	12	0	0.96
2	UTA	22	1	1.32
2	STL	11	0	0.57
3	UTA	6	1	0.68
3	STL	17	2	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown