Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-04-16 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 45.8%

LAK: 54.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.91

LAK: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

A. Sergeev

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	CGY	LAK
Season SV%	—	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	A. Sergeev	28	27	1	96.4%	3.46	0	2.46
LAK	Anton Forsberg	21	18	3	85.7%	1.54	1	-1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CGY at home vs LAK: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	5	0	0.27
1	LAK	14	0	1.13
2	CGY	15	0	0.55
2	LAK	14	0	1.15
3	CGY	10	1	0.72
3	LAK	16	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown