Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-05-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 42.1%

BUF: 57.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.77

BUF: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.62
1	BUF	19	2	1.63
2	BOS	10	1	0.70
2	BUF	12	1	0.80
3	BOS	18	0	0.54
3	BUF	10	3	2.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4