Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-01 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 51.0%

TBL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.12

TBL: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.85
1	TBL	17	1	1.15
2	MTL	16	0	1.71
2	TBL	15	0	0.66
3	MTL	14	2	1.47
3	TBL	25	0	2.08
4	MTL	5	0	0.34
4	TBL	7	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8