Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-05-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 70.3%

MTL: 29.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

MTL: 2.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	1.04
1	MTL	12	0	0.47
2	TBL	16	0	1.31
2	MTL	3	0	0.15
3	TBL	13	0	0.62
3	MTL	8	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.2