Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 45.9%

PHI: 54.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.88

PHI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	PIT	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	24	21	3	87.5%	2.80	3	-0.20
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	27	0	100.0%	2.25	0	2.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.46
1	PHI	6	0	0.24
2	PIT	19	0	0.61
2	PHI	15	1	0.66
3	PIT	19	0	1.18
3	PHI	9	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown