Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-29 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 45.9%

PIT: 54.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.59

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	42	42	0	100.0%	4.62	3	4.62
PIT	Arturs Silovs	32	31	1	96.9%	2.98	2	1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	0.82
1	PIT	15	0	0.90
2	PHI	13	2	1.43
2	PIT	16	0	0.88
3	PHI	5	0	0.33
3	PIT	23	2	1.53
4	PHI	6	0	0.40
4	PIT	18	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.2