Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 50.8%

MIN: 49.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.29

MIN: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	DAL	MIN
Season SV%	0.907	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	24	4	85.7%	3.84	5	-0.16
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	22	20	2	90.9%	2.70	3	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs MIN: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.40
1	MIN	12	3	1.44
2	DAL	14	2	1.11
2	MIN	19	0	1.13
3	DAL	20	1	1.19
3	MIN	8	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown