Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-06-02 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 64.0%

VGK: 36.0%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.35

VGK: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 5.1

Over 5.5: 47%

Over 6.5: 34%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	CAR	VGK
Season SV%	0.865	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	23	18	5	78.3%	4.78	5	-0.22
VGK	Carter Hart	27	23	4	85.2%	2.68	0	-1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CAR at home vs VGK: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-02	CAR 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	CAR
2025-10-28	CAR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	CAR
2025-10-20	VGK 4 - 1 CAR	VGK	CAR
2025-01-17	CAR 3 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2024-11-11	VGK 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	0	1.21
1	VGK	6	0	0.33
2	CAR	11	0	0.54
2	VGK	19	3	2.25
3	CAR	18	0	0.92
3	VGK	13	2	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown