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2026-27 Preseason

New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction (Oct 01, 2026)

New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Oct 01, 2026

Page built: Sep 06, 2026 04:40 PM PDT. Forecast generation time is unavailable; dated research coverage is shown below.

Detailed NHL game prediction for New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning.

New York Rangers 38.5% Tampa Bay Lightning 61.5%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: New York Rangers 1.26 — Tampa Bay Lightning 4.37 • Median total: 6.2

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstNYRTBL
Net attempts / 60UnavailableUnavailable
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60UnavailableUnavailable
Net xG / 60UnavailableUnavailable
Score-adjusted net xG / 60UnavailableUnavailable

NYR: recent form withheld; latest verified game is 2026-04-15.

TBL: recent form withheld; latest verified game is 2026-04-15.

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Fresh prior shot-pattern profiles are unavailable for one or both teams.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

Projected Shots on Goal

Player-level SOG forecasts for this matchup. Team values are the sum of projected dressed skaters and are a secondary context statistic, not a forecast of the combined game total.

NYR23.6projected team SOG
TBL28.5projected team SOG

NYR shot leaders

  1. Mika Zibanejad2.2
  2. Alexis Lafrenière2.1
  3. Vincent Trocheck1.8
  4. Adam Fox1.8
  5. J.T. Miller1.8

TBL shot leaders

  1. Nikita Kucherov3.6
  2. Brandon Hagel3.1
  3. Darren Raddysh2.8
  4. Jake Guentzel2.5
  5. Brayden Point2.1
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