Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL
Eastern
Season Record:
4-2-0
(8 pts, 66.7%)
Last 5 games:
60% win rate
Points Percentage
66.7%
8 pts in 6 games
Overtime Record
0-0
OT/SO: 0 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.55
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.93
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.60
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-4.2
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
4
4W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
1
1W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.1%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.3%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
6.8%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
44.2/gm · p69
Slot Location style
32.1% · p91
Finishing variance
0.85 G/xG · p31
Shot Quality
0.085 xG/sh · p91
Defense
Shot Suppression
36.0/gm · p81
Slot Defense
28.3% allowed · p72
Goaltending variance
0.82 GA/xGA · p72
Quality Allowed
0.081 xG/sh · p28
Regression Watch
Tampa Bay Lightning is finishing 20% below expected (0.80). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 6 | 38 | 4.7 | 4 |
| Jake Guentzel | 6 | 21 | 2.7 | 3 |
| Brayden Point | 6 | 30 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 5 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 6 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | NYR | 60.1% | 2.91 | 3.03 | 2.49 | 3.00 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | NYI | 57.2% | 2.96 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 2.40 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | MIN | 82.8% | 4.41 | 2.25 | 3.21 | 3.19 | W |
| 2026-10-05 | PHI | 80.2% | 4.68 | 2.54 | 5.57 | 1.75 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | WSH | 57.2% | 3.43 | 4.50 | 4.11 | 2.57 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | NYR | 50.3% | 4.06 | 2.22 | 2.91 | 4.66 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | MTL | 71.1% | 3.64 | 2.22 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-01 | MTL | 55.7% | 3.08 | 3.07 | - | - | W |
| 2026-04-29 | MTL | 65.3% | 3.62 | 2.50 | - | - | L |
| 2026-04-26 | MTL | 52.4% | 2.74 | 3.59 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | SEA | 75.7% | 4.08 | 1.99 |
| 2026-10-17 | 4:00 PM EDT | VAN | 71.9% | 4.59 | 2.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:30 PM PDT | VGK | 50.0% | 3.17 | 3.35 |
| 2026-10-23 | 7:00 PM MDT | COL | 49.7% | 3.12 | 3.52 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM MDT | UTA | 33.6% | 3.06 | 3.38 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM EDT | WPG | 74.6% | 4.18 | 2.62 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM CDT | NSH | 63.5% | 3.82 | 2.61 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | DET | 75.0% | 3.64 | 2.90 |