Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL
Eastern
Season Record:
53-28-8
(114 pts, 64.0%)
Last 5 games:
50% win rate
Points Percentage
64.0%
114 pts in 89 games
Overtime Record
12-8
OT/SO: 12 wins, 8 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.04
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.04
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.52
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-9.2
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
44
41W – 3L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
7
4W – 3L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.1%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.3%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
6.8%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
42.8/gm · p56
Slot Location style
30.3% · p84
Finishing variance
1.01 G/xG · p75
Shot Quality
0.082 xG/sh · p94
Defense
Shot Suppression
39.9/gm · p84
Slot Defense
26.7% allowed · p94
Goaltending variance
0.94 GA/xGA · p72
Quality Allowed
0.075 xG/sh · p59
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 87 | 351 | 41.3 | 40 |
| Brandon Hagel | 77 | 351 | 40.2 | 42 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 83 | 434 | 36.1 | 47 |
| Brayden Point | 65 | 213 | 27.1 | 21 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 69 | 192 | 22.0 | 23 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | MTL | 70.3% | 3.03 | 2.19 | 2.98 | 0.80 | L |
| 2026-05-01 | MTL | 49.0% | 2.79 | 3.12 | 4.82 | 4.63 | W |
| 2026-04-29 | MTL | 65.3% | 2.97 | 2.58 | 2.83 | 2.46 | L |
| 2026-04-26 | MTL | 44.0% | 2.49 | 3.37 | 3.99 | 3.18 | W |
| 2026-04-24 | MTL | 53.8% | 3.14 | 3.25 | 2.69 | 3.19 | L |
| 2026-04-21 | MTL | 61.6% | 3.39 | 2.82 | 2.92 | 2.78 | W |
| 2026-04-19 | MTL | 53.7% | 3.18 | 3.96 | 2.05 | 3.08 | L |
| 2026-04-15 | NYR | 60.9% | 2.76 | 2.82 | 4.50 | 3.10 | L |
| 2026-04-13 | DET | 61.4% | 3.49 | 2.82 | 2.89 | 3.08 | W |
| 2026-04-11 | BOS | 52.9% | 3.15 | 2.72 | 2.76 | 2.29 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYR | 61.5% | 4.39 | 1.26 |
| 2026-10-03 | 7:00 PM EDT | WSH | 51.7% | 1.81 | 2.97 |
| 2026-10-05 | 7:00 PM EDT | PHI | 50.6% | 1.61 | 4.01 |
| 2026-10-08 | 7:00 PM EDT | MIN | 52.1% | 2.28 | 2.88 |
| 2026-10-10 | 7:30 PM EDT | NYI | 59.8% | 3.94 | 2.51 |
| 2026-10-13 | 7:15 PM EDT | NYR | 61.5% | 4.41 | 1.27 |
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | SEA | 52.5% | 2.16 | 3.93 |
| 2026-10-17 | 4:00 PM EDT | VAN | 51.0% | 3.48 | 2.57 |