Buffalo Sabres Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Buffalo Sabres
BUF
Eastern
Season Record:
3-3-1
(7 pts, 50.0%)
Last 5 games:
40% win rate
Points Percentage
50.0%
7 pts in 7 games
Overtime Record
1-1
OT/SO: 1 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.41
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.14
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.09
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-2.6
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
2
2W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
55.3%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.7%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
7.1%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
44.0/gm · p66
Slot Location style
31.4% · p78
Finishing variance
0.68 G/xG · p12
Shot Quality
0.074 xG/sh · p44
Defense
Shot Suppression
35.4/gm · p84
Slot Defense
29.9% allowed · p41
Goaltending variance
1.36 GA/xGA · p12
Quality Allowed
0.079 xG/sh · p41
Regression Watch
Buffalo Sabres is finishing 12% below expected (0.88). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 7 | 42 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Noah Ostlund | 7 | 28 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Zach Benson | 7 | 24 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jack Quinn | 7 | 31 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Josh Doan | 7 | 19 | 1.5 | 1 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | MTL | 42.4% | 3.32 | 3.44 | 2.59 | 4.35 | L |
| 2026-10-12 | FLA | 52.8% | 3.11 | 2.88 | 3.80 | 3.67 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | UTA | 58.2% | 2.87 | 3.18 | 2.94 | 4.68 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 53.9% | 2.83 | 3.06 | 2.79 | 2.20 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | MIN | 60.4% | 3.89 | 2.86 | 3.92 | 1.88 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | CHI | 84.8% | 4.41 | 2.19 | 4.09 | 2.56 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | CBJ | 57.1% | 3.26 | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.63 | L |
| 2026-05-18 | MTL | 67.4% | 3.43 | 2.85 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-16 | MTL | 56.6% | 3.46 | 2.91 | - | - | W |
| 2026-05-14 | MTL | 63.6% | 3.54 | 2.93 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | TOR | 63.9% | 3.61 | 2.80 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | MTL | 53.6% | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| 2026-10-21 | 7:30 PM EDT | PHI | 73.0% | 5.33 | 3.03 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | WSH | 45.8% | 3.35 | 3.62 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:30 PM PDT | SJS | 69.2% | 3.21 | 2.49 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM PDT | ANA | 52.5% | 3.20 | 2.86 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM PDT | LAK | 49.3% | 3.28 | 2.96 |
| 2026-11-04 | 7:30 PM EST | OTT | 55.8% | 3.09 | 3.07 |