Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Montreal Canadiens
MTL
Eastern
Season Record:
2-2-1
(5 pts, 50.0%)
Last 5 games:
30% win rate
Points Percentage
50.0%
5 pts in 5 games
Overtime Record
1-1
OT/SO: 1 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
2.87
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.91
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.28
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-3.2
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
1
1W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
52.4%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.8%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
5.9%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
41.2/gm · p53
Slot Location style
26.7% · p19
Finishing variance
1.10 G/xG · p69
Shot Quality
0.077 xG/sh · p50
Defense
Shot Suppression
40.5/gm · p55
Slot Defense
31.5% allowed · p25
Goaltending variance
1.31 GA/xGA · p22
Quality Allowed
0.090 xG/sh · p3
Regression Watch
Montreal Canadiens is finishing 17% below expected (0.83). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský | 5 | 19 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Josh Anderson | 5 | 14 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Cole Caufield | 5 | 26 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Chris Kreider | 5 | 15 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Zack Bolduc | 4 | 13 | 1.3 | 3 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | DET | 66.5% | 3.52 | 2.89 | 5.48 | 5.00 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | NSH | 53.7% | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.81 | 3.51 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | CAR | 46.4% | 2.86 | 3.03 | 2.28 | 5.01 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | PIT | 28.1% | 3.45 | 3.37 | 2.90 | 3.16 | L |
| 2026-09-29 | TOR | 53.9% | 2.94 | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.86 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | CAR | 19.4% | 2.27 | 3.90 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-27 | CAR | 27.2% | 1.54 | 3.06 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-25 | CAR | 29.9% | 2.68 | 3.56 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-23 | CAR | 19.3% | 2.74 | 3.54 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-21 | CAR | 19.1% | 3.29 | 3.77 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 6:30 PM EDT | BUF | 57.8% | 3.44 | 3.32 |
| 2026-10-14 | 7:30 PM EDT | WSH | 42.0% | 2.78 | 3.43 |
| 2026-10-17 | 7:00 PM EDT | BUF | 47.6% | 3.41 | 3.32 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | SJS | 80.3% | 4.37 | 2.32 |
| 2026-10-23 | 7:00 PM CDT | CHI | 67.2% | 3.45 | 2.81 |
| 2026-10-25 | 6:00 PM CDT | WPG | 69.8% | 3.47 | 2.95 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:00 PM CDT | STL | 58.0% | 3.22 | 3.49 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM CDT | DAL | 45.3% | 2.82 | 3.50 |