Ottawa Senators Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Ottawa Senators
OTT
Eastern
Season Record:
44-30-12
(100 pts, 58.1%)
Last 5 games:
50% win rate
Points Percentage
58.1%
100 pts in 86 games
Overtime Record
6-12
OT/SO: 6 wins, 12 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.24
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.87
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.59
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-14.9
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
38
35W – 3L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
4
3W – 1L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
50.2%
Chance to make playoffs.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.2%
Projected via season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
6.4%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
43.4/gm · p72
Slot Location style
28.7% · p56
Finishing variance
0.96 G/xG · p53
Shot Quality
0.079 xG/sh · p84
Defense
Shot Suppression
36.5/gm · p97
Slot Defense
26.7% allowed · p91
Goaltending variance
1.11 GA/xGA · p3
Quality Allowed
0.073 xG/sh · p78
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle | 80 | 298 | 33.1 | 36 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 63 | 318 | 31.3 | 20 |
| Dylan Cozens | 83 | 308 | 30.0 | 30 |
| Drake Batherson | 80 | 294 | 29.3 | 38 |
| Shane Pinto | 72 | 262 | 27.4 | 24 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | CAR | 35.3% | 2.79 | 3.23 | 3.61 | 5.80 | L |
| 2026-04-23 | CAR | 35.2% | 2.72 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 4.69 | L |
| 2026-04-20 | CAR | 37.0% | 2.89 | 3.34 | 4.73 | 5.45 | L |
| 2026-04-18 | CAR | 39.1% | 3.03 | 3.43 | 2.50 | 4.15 | L |
| 2026-04-15 | TOR | 79.9% | 4.01 | 1.57 | 5.13 | 1.59 | W |
| 2026-04-12 | NJD | 49.5% | 3.22 | 3.36 | 3.41 | 3.93 | L |
| 2026-04-11 | NYI | 60.8% | 3.55 | 3.00 | 2.17 | 2.96 | W |
| 2026-04-09 | FLA | 63.3% | 3.78 | 2.78 | 4.31 | 1.90 | W |
| 2026-04-07 | TBL | 64.0% | 3.35 | 2.99 | 5.22 | 2.25 | W |
| 2026-04-05 | CAR | 57.5% | 3.03 | 2.99 | 2.69 | 1.37 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 7:00 PM EDT | TOR | 61.1% | 4.66 | 1.37 |
| 2026-10-05 | 7:30 PM EDT | BOS | 61.8% | 4.00 | 2.08 |
| 2026-10-06 | 7:00 PM EDT | DET | 62.9% | 3.89 | 2.23 |
| 2026-10-08 | 7:00 PM EDT | PHI | 50.8% | 2.62 | 4.04 |
| 2026-10-10 | 7:00 PM EDT | NSH | 50.7% | 2.09 | 3.73 |
| 2026-10-12 | 7:00 PM EDT | NJD | 58.1% | 4.14 | 2.15 |
| 2026-10-13 | 7:30 PM EDT | STL | 50.4% | 1.58 | 4.24 |
| 2026-10-15 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYI | 53.5% | 2.83 | 3.43 |