Buffalo Sabres Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Buffalo Sabres
BUF
Eastern
Season Record:
4-3-2
(10 pts, 55.6%)
Last 5 games:
40% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Buffalo Sabres have a 44.6% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs?
It's close to a coin flip. Our season simulation gives the Buffalo Sabres a 44.6% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds +124) and a 2.0% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +4,951). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
55.6%
10 pts in 9 games
Overtime Record
2-2
OT/SO: 2 wins, 2 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.42
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.20
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.01
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-0.9
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
3
3W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
44.6%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds +124). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
2.0%
Fair odds +4,951, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
3.9%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
43.9/gm · p62
Slot Location style
29.9% · p62
Finishing variance
0.91 G/xG · p34
Shot Quality
0.075 xG/sh · p34
Defense
Shot Suppression
39.4/gm · p72
Slot Defense
30.2% allowed · p38
Goaltending variance
1.23 GA/xGA · p12
Quality Allowed
0.078 xG/sh · p47
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 9 | 56 | 4.3 | 5 |
| Zach Benson | 9 | 35 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jack Quinn | 9 | 41 | 3.3 | 5 |
| Noah Ostlund | 9 | 31 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Josh Norris | 8 | 19 | 2.1 | 2 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | MTL | 47.2% | 3.55 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 4.02 | L |
| 2026-10-15 | TOR | 63.4% | 3.51 | 3.20 | 2.84 | 2.81 | W |
| 2026-10-13 | MTL | 42.4% | 3.32 | 3.44 | 2.59 | 4.35 | L |
| 2026-10-12 | FLA | 52.8% | 3.11 | 2.88 | 3.80 | 3.67 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | UTA | 58.2% | 2.87 | 3.18 | 2.94 | 4.68 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 53.9% | 2.83 | 3.06 | 2.79 | 2.20 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | MIN | 60.4% | 3.89 | 2.86 | 3.92 | 1.88 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | CHI | 84.8% | 4.41 | 2.19 | 4.09 | 2.56 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | CBJ | 57.1% | 3.26 | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.63 | L |
| 2026-05-18 | MTL | 67.4% | 3.43 | 2.85 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 7:30 PM EDT | PHI | 72.5% | 4.23 | 2.59 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | WSH | 50.7% | 3.33 | 3.24 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:30 PM PDT | SJS | 65.9% | 3.29 | 2.96 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM PDT | ANA | 55.5% | 3.31 | 3.03 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM PDT | LAK | 46.6% | 3.07 | 3.02 |
| 2026-11-04 | 7:30 PM EST | OTT | 54.5% | 3.20 | 3.06 |
| 2026-11-06 | 7:00 PM EST | CBJ | 63.5% | 3.40 | 3.02 |
| 2026-11-08 | 3:30 PM EST | VGK | 45.5% | 3.15 | 3.20 |