Calgary Flames Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Calgary Flames
CGY
Western
Season Record:
1-6-0
(2 pts, 14.3%)
Last 5 games:
30% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Calgary Flames have a 40.9% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Calgary Flames make the playoffs?
It's close to a coin flip. Our season simulation gives the Calgary Flames a 40.9% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds +144) and a 1.3% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +7,476). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
14.3%
2 pts in 7 games
Overtime Record
0-0
OT/SO: 0 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
2.68
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.38
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.26
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-7.8
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
1
1W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
40.9%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds +144). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
1.3%
Fair odds +7,476, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
3.8%
Western Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
47.1/gm · p88
Slot Location style
25.5% · p12
Finishing variance
0.64 G/xG · p6
Shot Quality
0.066 xG/sh · p9
Defense
Shot Suppression
44.0/gm · p28
Slot Defense
33.1% allowed · p9
Goaltending variance
1.48 GA/xGA · p6
Quality Allowed
0.077 xG/sh · p56
Regression Watch
Calgary Flames is finishing 36% below expected (0.64). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund | 7 | 35 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Morgan Frost | 7 | 19 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Joel Farabee | 7 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Strome | 6 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 6 | 21 | 1.6 | 1 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | VGK | 31.2% | 2.84 | 3.57 | 3.47 | 4.20 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | ANA | 45.3% | 2.94 | 3.05 | 4.69 | 3.14 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | ANA | 62.5% | 2.50 | 3.64 | 3.29 | 3.44 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | COL | 38.6% | 2.28 | 4.15 | 2.86 | 2.88 | L |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 30.5% | 3.01 | 3.42 | 3.06 | 2.48 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | VAN | 42.8% | 3.48 | 2.80 | 1.87 | 3.55 | L |
| 2026-10-01 | SEA | 42.0% | 1.49 | 4.78 | 2.55 | 3.95 | L |
| 2026-04-16 | LAK | 51.0% | 2.99 | 3.16 | - | - | W |
| 2026-04-14 | COL | 33.4% | 2.34 | 3.55 | - | - | L |
| 2026-04-12 | UTA | 53.5% | 2.98 | 2.82 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 6:00 PM MDT | CAR | 33.2% | 2.12 | 3.77 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM MDT | MIN | 49.8% | 3.01 | 4.28 |
| 2026-10-24 | 8:00 PM MDT | DET | 52.4% | 2.98 | 3.04 |
| 2026-10-26 | 6:30 PM MDT | TOR | 62.6% | 3.61 | 3.40 |
| 2026-10-28 | 6:30 PM MDT | EDM | 48.8% | 2.77 | 3.34 |
| 2026-10-30 | 6:00 PM MDT | SEA | 62.0% | 4.21 | 3.42 |
| 2026-10-31 | 8:00 PM MDT | COL | 24.9% | 2.62 | 3.96 |
| 2026-11-02 | 6:00 PM PST | SJS | 57.1% | 3.18 | 2.69 |