Colorado Avalanche Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Colorado Avalanche
COL
Western
Season Record:
5-2-1
(11 pts, 68.8%)
Last 5 games:
50% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Colorado Avalanche have a 75.4% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Colorado Avalanche make the playoffs?
More likely than not. Our season simulation gives the Colorado Avalanche a 75.4% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -306) and a 4.9% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +1,933). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
68.8%
11 pts in 8 games
Overtime Record
0-1
OT/SO: 0 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.68
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.80
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.96
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
+6.9
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
4
4W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
75.4%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -306). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
4.9%
Fair odds +1,933, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
12.1%
Western Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
46.1/gm · p81
Slot Location style
30.7% · p78
Finishing variance
1.30 G/xG · p94
Shot Quality
0.081 xG/sh · p75
Defense
Shot Suppression
41.3/gm · p50
Slot Defense
27.7% allowed · p72
Goaltending variance
1.07 GA/xGA · p41
Quality Allowed
0.068 xG/sh · p97
Regression Watch
Colorado Avalanche is finishing 23% above expected (1.23). This often regresses downward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 8 | 51 | 4.0 | 6 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 8 | 23 | 3.6 | 6 |
| Nazem Kadri | 8 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brock Nelson | 8 | 20 | 2.7 | 3 |
| Martin Necas | 7 | 25 | 2.1 | 4 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | PIT | 54.0% | 3.52 | 3.08 | 5.87 | 3.52 | W |
| 2026-10-14 | DAL | 60.5% | 3.40 | 2.92 | 3.82 | 2.78 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | DAL | 57.8% | 3.31 | 2.77 | 3.26 | 3.12 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | TOR | 59.8% | 3.32 | 3.40 | 4.42 | 3.27 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | CGY | 61.4% | 4.15 | 2.28 | 2.88 | 2.86 | W |
| 2026-10-07 | WPG | 63.7% | 3.67 | 1.69 | 3.01 | 1.98 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | STL | 71.1% | 5.07 | 2.22 | 3.64 | 1.87 | W |
| 2026-09-30 | LAK | 55.7% | 3.59 | 2.60 | 3.15 | 3.01 | W |
| 2026-05-26 | VGK | 58.5% | 3.39 | 2.79 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-24 | VGK | 61.4% | 3.34 | 3.00 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 7:00 PM EDT | PHI | 70.9% | 3.76 | 2.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | NJD | 17.9% | 3.05 | 4.19 |
| 2026-10-23 | 7:00 PM MDT | TBL | 47.4% | 3.30 | 3.18 |
| 2026-10-25 | 7:00 PM CDT | NSH | 57.3% | 3.31 | 3.06 |
| 2026-10-28 | 7:00 PM MDT | NJD | 60.4% | 3.56 | 3.38 |
| 2026-10-31 | 8:00 PM MDT | CGY | 75.1% | 3.96 | 2.62 |
| 2026-11-02 | 7:00 PM CST | CHI | 71.6% | 3.81 | 2.76 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | CBJ | 39.1% | 3.33 | 3.35 |