Dallas Stars Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Dallas Stars
DAL
Western
Season Record:
4-3-1
(9 pts, 56.2%)
Last 5 games:
40% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Dallas Stars have a 57.8% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Dallas Stars make the playoffs?
It's close to a coin flip. Our season simulation gives the Dallas Stars a 57.8% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -137) and a 1.9% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +5,276). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
56.2%
9 pts in 8 games
Overtime Record
1-1
OT/SO: 1 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.13
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.01
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.09
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-1.7
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
4
4W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
57.8%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -137). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
1.9%
Fair odds +5,276, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
4.9%
Western Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
41.3/gm · p50
Slot Location style
25.4% · p9
Finishing variance
0.88 G/xG · p25
Shot Quality
0.073 xG/sh · p25
Defense
Shot Suppression
34.2/gm · p97
Slot Defense
37.1% allowed · p3
Goaltending variance
0.55 GA/xGA · p100
Quality Allowed
0.079 xG/sh · p34
Regression Watch
Dallas Stars is finishing 7% below expected (0.93). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 8 | 38 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Roope Hintz | 8 | 27 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Wyatt Johnston | 6 | 24 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Seguin | 8 | 35 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7 | 21 | 1.7 | 2 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | CHI | 54.0% | 3.44 | 2.75 | 3.24 | 2.49 | W |
| 2026-10-14 | COL | 39.5% | 2.92 | 3.40 | 2.78 | 3.82 | W |
| 2026-10-13 | COL | 42.2% | 2.77 | 3.31 | 3.12 | 3.26 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | PIT | 50.6% | 3.00 | 2.84 | 3.75 | 3.94 | L |
| 2026-10-08 | BUF | 46.1% | 3.06 | 2.83 | 2.20 | 2.79 | W |
| 2026-10-05 | SJS | 74.8% | 4.17 | 3.35 | 4.37 | 1.66 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | NSH | 42.1% | 3.36 | 3.56 | 2.30 | 2.36 | L |
| 2026-10-02 | STL | 48.4% | 2.42 | 3.73 | 2.96 | 3.73 | L |
| 2026-04-30 | MIN | 47.5% | 2.91 | 3.08 | - | - | L |
| 2026-04-28 | MIN | 53.2% | 3.24 | 3.01 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM CDT | BOS | 57.4% | 3.18 | 3.51 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM CDT | WPG | 61.9% | 3.35 | 3.11 |
| 2026-10-25 | 5:00 PM CDT | NYI | 62.4% | 3.85 | 2.50 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:00 PM CDT | NJD | 34.3% | 3.05 | 3.17 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM CDT | MTL | 47.9% | 3.22 | 3.20 |
| 2026-10-31 | 7:00 PM CDT | CBJ | 57.5% | 3.26 | 3.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | WSH | 45.4% | 2.56 | 2.99 |
| 2026-11-05 | 7:00 PM EST | CBJ | 41.3% | 2.94 | 3.33 |