Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Montreal Canadiens
MTL
Eastern
Season Record:
4-3-1
(9 pts, 56.2%)
Last 5 games:
40% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Montreal Canadiens have a 62.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Montreal Canadiens make the playoffs?
More likely than not. Our season simulation gives the Montreal Canadiens a 62.7% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -168) and a 3.9% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +2,438). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
56.2%
9 pts in 8 games
Overtime Record
3-1
OT/SO: 3 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.01
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.70
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.05
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-1.0
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
3
3W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
62.7%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -168). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
3.9%
Fair odds +2,438, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
7.8%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
44.2/gm · p66
Slot Location style
29.8% · p56
Finishing variance
1.09 G/xG · p75
Shot Quality
0.076 xG/sh · p38
Defense
Shot Suppression
40.2/gm · p59
Slot Defense
30.3% allowed · p34
Goaltending variance
1.23 GA/xGA · p9
Quality Allowed
0.091 xG/sh · p3
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 8 | 44 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Cole Caufield | 8 | 42 | 3.0 | 5 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 8 | 31 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Josh Anderson | 8 | 25 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Zack Bolduc | 7 | 21 | 2.2 | 4 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | BUF | 52.8% | 3.58 | 3.55 | 4.02 | 3.42 | W |
| 2026-10-14 | WSH | 47.9% | 3.04 | 3.51 | 3.43 | 4.01 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | BUF | 57.6% | 3.44 | 3.32 | 4.35 | 2.59 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | DET | 66.5% | 3.52 | 2.89 | 5.48 | 5.00 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | NSH | 53.7% | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.81 | 3.51 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | CAR | 46.4% | 2.86 | 3.03 | 2.28 | 5.01 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | PIT | 28.1% | 3.45 | 3.37 | 2.90 | 3.16 | L |
| 2026-09-29 | TOR | 53.9% | 2.94 | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.86 | W |
| 2026-05-29 | CAR | 19.4% | 2.27 | 3.90 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-27 | CAR | 27.2% | 1.54 | 3.06 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | SJS | 79.8% | 4.12 | 2.77 |
| 2026-10-23 | 7:00 PM CDT | CHI | 68.0% | 3.23 | 2.61 |
| 2026-10-25 | 6:00 PM CDT | WPG | 58.9% | 3.42 | 3.10 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:00 PM CDT | STL | 51.2% | 3.01 | 3.45 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM CDT | DAL | 52.1% | 3.20 | 3.22 |
| 2026-10-31 | 7:00 PM EDT | PIT | 49.2% | 3.19 | 3.29 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | WPG | 70.0% | 4.20 | 2.92 |
| 2026-11-05 | 7:00 PM EST | UTA | 43.4% | 2.88 | 3.30 |