Ottawa Senators Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Ottawa Senators
OTT
Eastern
Season Record:
6-3-0
(12 pts, 66.7%)
Last 5 games:
60% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Ottawa Senators have a 39.1% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Ottawa Senators make the playoffs?
It's an uphill climb. Our season simulation gives the Ottawa Senators a 39.1% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds +155) and a 0.4% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +26,216). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
66.7%
12 pts in 9 games
Overtime Record
2-0
OT/SO: 2 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.43
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.10
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.07
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-3.5
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
2
2W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
39.1%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds +155). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
0.4%
Fair odds +26,216, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
1.1%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
35.0/gm · p12
Slot Location style
31.8% · p91
Finishing variance
0.92 G/xG · p38
Shot Quality
0.085 xG/sh · p94
Defense
Shot Suppression
42.3/gm · p42
Slot Defense
27.4% allowed · p75
Goaltending variance
0.90 GA/xGA · p72
Quality Allowed
0.075 xG/sh · p59
Regression Watch
Ottawa Senators is finishing 12% below expected (0.88). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto | 9 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| William Eklund | 3 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Drake Batherson | 9 | 30 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Tim Stützle | 8 | 21 | 2.2 | 5 |
| Stephen Halliday | 6 | 17 | 2.1 | 2 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | PHI | 47.5% | 3.29 | 3.08 | 2.63 | 2.60 | L |
| 2026-10-15 | NYI | 55.4% | 3.44 | 3.30 | 4.08 | 2.53 | W |
| 2026-10-13 | STL | 47.1% | 2.59 | 3.26 | 1.80 | 3.59 | L |
| 2026-10-12 | NJD | 27.9% | 2.56 | 3.56 | 3.90 | 2.95 | W |
| 2026-10-10 | NSH | 59.2% | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.72 | 3.06 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | PHI | 71.6% | 4.50 | 4.17 | 2.46 | 3.71 | W |
| 2026-10-06 | DET | 28.5% | 5.20 | 3.72 | 2.73 | 3.78 | L |
| 2026-10-05 | BOS | 43.1% | 3.41 | 3.08 | 2.46 | 2.33 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | TOR | 42.9% | 3.01 | 3.25 | 4.73 | 3.34 | W |
| 2026-04-25 | CAR | 41.6% | 2.63 | 3.00 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 7:30 PM EDT | FLA | 43.7% | 2.32 | 3.54 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM EDT | SJS | 55.3% | 3.49 | 2.80 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYR | 63.2% | 3.33 | 2.97 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:00 PM PDT | VGK | 33.0% | 2.85 | 3.86 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM PDT | LAK | 37.1% | 2.97 | 3.54 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM PDT | SJS | 55.8% | 3.45 | 3.03 |
| 2026-11-01 | 5:00 PM PST | ANA | 40.1% | 2.85 | 3.44 |
| 2026-11-04 | 7:30 PM EST | BUF | 45.5% | 3.06 | 3.20 |