Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT
Eastern
Season Record:
3-5-1
(7 pts, 38.9%)
Last 5 games:
30% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 56.2% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the playoffs?
It's close to a coin flip. Our season simulation gives the Pittsburgh Penguins a 56.2% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -128) and a 5.1% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +1,869). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
38.9%
7 pts in 9 games
Overtime Record
2-1
OT/SO: 2 wins, 1 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.38
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.80
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.08
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-2.5
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
3
2W – 1L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
56.2%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -128). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
5.1%
Fair odds +1,869, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
8.7%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
45.4/gm · p72
Slot Location style
34.6% · p100
Finishing variance
0.98 G/xG · p56
Shot Quality
0.081 xG/sh · p69
Defense
Shot Suppression
39.9/gm · p62
Slot Defense
27.2% allowed · p78
Goaltending variance
1.17 GA/xGA · p19
Quality Allowed
0.089 xG/sh · p9
Regression Watch
Pittsburgh Penguins is finishing 7% below expected (0.93). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell | 9 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Kindel | 8 | 28 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Sidney Crosby | 9 | 34 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Evgeni Malkin | 9 | 26 | 2.8 | 5 |
| Tommy Novak | 7 | 22 | 2.3 | 3 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | VGK | 35.0% | 3.02 | 3.32 | 3.51 | 3.33 | L |
| 2026-10-16 | COL | 46.0% | 3.08 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 5.87 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | CHI | 71.9% | 4.08 | 2.03 | 3.82 | 3.24 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | DAL | 49.4% | 2.84 | 3.00 | 3.94 | 3.75 | W |
| 2026-10-09 | CBJ | 48.7% | 3.39 | 3.32 | 3.88 | 5.74 | L |
| 2026-10-07 | WSH | 57.1% | 3.34 | 2.61 | 3.72 | 3.85 | L |
| 2026-10-05 | WPG | 76.2% | 3.46 | 4.15 | 3.35 | 3.85 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | MTL | 71.9% | 3.37 | 3.45 | 3.16 | 2.90 | W |
| 2026-09-30 | PHI | 53.8% | 4.24 | 2.52 | 4.54 | 1.70 | W |
| 2026-04-29 | PHI | 56.1% | 3.01 | 2.82 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 7:00 PM MDT | UTA | 51.3% | 3.12 | 3.67 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM EDT | FLA | 56.2% | 3.11 | 3.07 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | NSH | 70.0% | 3.53 | 2.69 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM EDT | UTA | 52.7% | 3.15 | 3.51 |
| 2026-10-31 | 7:00 PM EDT | MTL | 50.8% | 3.29 | 3.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | VGK | 72.8% | 3.39 | 3.64 |
| 2026-11-05 | 7:00 PM EST | BOS | 68.0% | 3.69 | 2.82 |
| 2026-11-07 | 6:00 PM PST | LAK | 44.4% | 3.98 | 2.96 |