Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBL
Eastern
Season Record:
6-2-0
(12 pts, 75.0%)
Last 5 games:
70% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a 73.8% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning make the playoffs?
More likely than not. Our season simulation gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 73.8% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -281) and a 5.6% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +1,673). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
75.0%
12 pts in 8 games
Overtime Record
1-0
OT/SO: 1 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.74
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.77
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+1.00
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
-5.2
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
6
6W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
1
1W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
73.8%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -281). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
5.6%
Fair odds +1,673, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
10.9%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
46.0/gm · p77
Slot Location style
31.2% · p81
Finishing variance
0.83 G/xG · p16
Shot Quality
0.082 xG/sh · p88
Defense
Shot Suppression
34.8/gm · p94
Slot Defense
28.8% allowed · p56
Goaltending variance
0.95 GA/xGA · p62
Quality Allowed
0.080 xG/sh · p31
Regression Watch
Tampa Bay Lightning is finishing 17% below expected (0.83). This often rebounds upward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | 8 | 50 | 6.1 | 6 |
| Jake Guentzel | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 4 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 7 | 21 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Brayden Point | 8 | 34 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8 | 40 | 2.9 | 3 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | VAN | 79.4% | 4.24 | 2.03 | 5.23 | 1.73 | W |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 75.8% | 3.95 | 1.98 | 3.74 | 2.87 | W |
| 2026-10-13 | NYR | 60.1% | 2.91 | 3.03 | 2.49 | 3.00 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | NYI | 57.2% | 2.96 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 2.40 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | MIN | 82.8% | 4.41 | 2.25 | 3.21 | 3.19 | W |
| 2026-10-05 | PHI | 80.2% | 4.68 | 2.54 | 5.57 | 1.75 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | WSH | 57.2% | 3.43 | 4.50 | 4.11 | 2.57 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | NYR | 50.3% | 4.06 | 2.22 | 2.91 | 4.66 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | MTL | 71.1% | 3.64 | 2.22 | - | - | L |
| 2026-05-01 | MTL | 55.7% | 3.08 | 3.07 | - | - | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 7:30 PM PDT | VGK | 51.7% | 3.23 | 2.98 |
| 2026-10-23 | 7:00 PM MDT | COL | 52.6% | 3.18 | 3.30 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM MDT | UTA | 35.4% | 2.96 | 3.35 |
| 2026-10-29 | 7:00 PM EDT | WPG | 71.5% | 3.80 | 1.93 |
| 2026-10-31 | 1:00 PM CDT | NSH | 63.1% | 3.62 | 2.89 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | DET | 77.6% | 3.93 | 2.82 |
| 2026-11-05 | 7:00 PM EST | CHI | 84.0% | 5.22 | 2.87 |
| 2026-11-07 | 7:00 PM CST | MIN | 66.2% | 3.31 | 2.87 |