Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Toronto Maple Leafs
TOR
Eastern
Season Record:
3-4-2
(8 pts, 44.4%)
Last 5 games:
30% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 19.8% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs?
Unlikely. Our season simulation gives the Toronto Maple Leafs a 19.8% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds +406) and a 0.4% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +24,900). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
44.4%
8 pts in 9 games
Overtime Record
1-2
OT/SO: 1 wins, 2 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.24
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
3.76
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
-0.48
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
+0.5
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
4
2W – 2L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
0
0W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
19.8%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds +406). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
0.4%
Fair odds +24,900, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
0.8%
Eastern Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
41.9/gm · p53
Slot Location style
33.1% · p94
Finishing variance
1.01 G/xG · p59
Shot Quality
0.077 xG/sh · p50
Defense
Shot Suppression
43.2/gm · p34
Slot Defense
28.0% allowed · p62
Goaltending variance
1.02 GA/xGA · p47
Quality Allowed
0.079 xG/sh · p41
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 9 | 41 | 4.3 | 6 |
| William Nylander | 9 | 46 | 3.9 | 5 |
| Kirill Marchenko | 8 | 37 | 3.3 | 4 |
| Jack Roslovic | 9 | 39 | 3.1 | 3 |
| John Tavares | 6 | 24 | 2.8 | 2 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | NYI | 48.9% | 2.93 | 3.04 | 3.37 | 2.39 | L |
| 2026-10-15 | BUF | 36.6% | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.81 | 2.84 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | UTA | 28.8% | 2.92 | 3.75 | 3.14 | 2.59 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | COL | 40.2% | 3.40 | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.42 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | VGK | 42.7% | 4.13 | 3.11 | 3.79 | 6.47 | L |
| 2026-10-06 | NSH | 62.8% | 4.44 | 3.67 | 4.04 | 3.96 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | OTT | 57.1% | 3.25 | 3.01 | 3.34 | 4.73 | L |
| 2026-09-30 | NYI | 61.2% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 2.87 | 2.73 | W |
| 2026-09-29 | MTL | 46.1% | 2.88 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 3.70 | L |
| 2026-04-15 | OTT | 26.6% | 1.67 | 3.57 | - | - | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 7:30 PM EDT | SJS | 56.5% | 3.45 | 2.90 |
| 2026-10-20 | 7:00 PM EDT | CBJ | 33.6% | 2.87 | 3.35 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM EDT | NYR | 51.8% | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| 2026-10-24 | 5:00 PM MDT | EDM | 53.1% | 4.14 | 3.37 |
| 2026-10-26 | 6:30 PM MDT | CGY | 37.4% | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| 2026-10-28 | 7:00 PM PDT | SEA | 51.5% | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| 2026-10-31 | 4:00 PM PDT | VAN | 58.1% | 4.24 | 2.78 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | UTA | 33.9% | 2.84 | 3.01 |