Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Odds & Team Stats
Vegas Golden Knights
VGK
Western
Season Record:
8-2-0
(16 pts, 80.0%)
Last 5 games:
80% win rate
As of Oct 18, the Vegas Golden Knights have a 81.3% chance to make the playoffs.
Will the Vegas Golden Knights make the playoffs?
Very likely. Our season simulation gives the Vegas Golden Knights a 81.3% chance to make the playoffs (fair odds -434) and a 4.2% chance to win the Stanley Cup (fair odds +2,304). It is early in the season, so expect these numbers to move a lot.
Points Percentage
80.0%
16 pts in 10 games
Overtime Record
2-0
OT/SO: 2 wins, 0 losses
Recent Expected Goals
3.52
For per game (last 10 games)
Expected Goals Against
2.88
Allowed per game (season-to-date)
xG Differential
+0.86
Expected goals for minus against (per game)
Goals Above Expected
+5.6
Actual goals for minus expected goals for
Flood Games
6
6W – 0L when a Flood occurred
Grip Games
2
2W – 0L when the Grip was held
Playoff Odds
81.3%
Chance to make playoffs (fair odds -434). Early season: expect big swings.
Stanley Cup Odds
4.2%
Fair odds +2,304, from the season-long simulation.
Conference Outlook
11.1%
Western Conference title probability.
Team Style Profile
Percentiles vs the league this season (p100 = top). Style axes describe how a team plays (higher isn't better or worse); colored axes are evaluative (higher = better), and variance axes (finishing, goaltending) tend to regress — treat them as luck, not skill.
Offense
Shot Volume style
42.1/gm · p56
Slot Location style
30.1% · p72
Finishing variance
1.23 G/xG · p91
Shot Quality
0.082 xG/sh · p78
Defense
Shot Suppression
38.9/gm · p75
Slot Defense
28.3% allowed · p59
Goaltending variance
0.84 GA/xGA · p81
Quality Allowed
0.071 xG/sh · p88
Regression Watch
Vegas Golden Knights is finishing 15% above expected (1.15). This often regresses downward.
Top Scorers (xG Leaders)
| Player | GP | Unblocked attempts | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl | 10 | 38 | 5.5 | 4 |
| Mark Stone | 9 | 31 | 4.8 | 7 |
| Brett Howden | 9 | 28 | 3.8 | 4 |
| Jack Eichel | 9 | 35 | 3.1 | 5 |
| Trevor Connelly | 9 | 29 | 2.8 | 4 |
Team Trends (15-game rolling)
Recent Results
| Date | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against | xG For | xG Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | PIT | 65.0% | 3.32 | 3.02 | 3.33 | 3.51 | W |
| 2026-10-15 | CGY | 68.8% | 3.57 | 2.84 | 4.20 | 3.47 | W |
| 2026-10-13 | NSH | 61.4% | 3.10 | 2.81 | 1.92 | 2.52 | W |
| 2026-10-12 | MIN | 70.0% | 3.11 | 2.79 | 3.06 | 4.31 | L |
| 2026-10-10 | LAK | 68.9% | 3.69 | 3.04 | 2.60 | 1.89 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | TOR | 57.3% | 3.11 | 4.13 | 6.47 | 3.79 | W |
| 2026-10-06 | SEA | 58.1% | 3.12 | 3.03 | 3.66 | 2.64 | W |
| 2026-10-04 | VAN | 54.7% | 4.02 | 2.25 | 4.41 | 1.62 | W |
| 2026-10-02 | ANA | 74.7% | 4.65 | 2.25 | 3.44 | 2.74 | L |
| 2026-09-29 | CHI | 54.8% | 3.55 | 2.70 | 4.34 | 2.27 | W |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Local Time | Opponent | Pred Win% | Exp For | Exp Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 7:30 PM PDT | TBL | 48.3% | 2.98 | 3.23 |
| 2026-10-22 | 7:00 PM CDT | STL | 47.5% | 3.26 | 2.99 |
| 2026-10-24 | 7:00 PM EDT | CBJ | 51.6% | 3.15 | 3.13 |
| 2026-10-27 | 7:00 PM PDT | OTT | 67.0% | 3.86 | 2.85 |
| 2026-10-30 | 3:00 PM PDT | NJD | 51.5% | 3.03 | 2.95 |
| 2026-11-02 | 7:00 PM EST | BOS | 51.5% | 3.06 | 2.95 |
| 2026-11-03 | 7:00 PM EST | PIT | 27.2% | 3.64 | 3.39 |
| 2026-11-05 | 7:00 PM EST | DET | 48.4% | 3.45 | 3.03 |