Recent Games xG - NHL Predictions

Recent Games - xG Analysis

Game-by-game comparison of expected goals (xG) vs actual goals. See which teams are outperforming or underperforming their shot quality.

xG = neutral model (score-independent shot quality). Ctx = contextual model (accounts for score differential — trailing teams tend to take more desperation shots). A large gap between xG and Ctx can indicate a team was chasing the game.

Last 50 Games

Diff = Goals - xG. Positive (green) = outperformed xG, negative (red) = underperformed.

Date	Away	Shots	xG	Ctx	Goals	Diff		Home	Shots	xG	Ctx	Goals	Diff
2026-06-14	CAR	36	2.7	2.5	3	+0.3	@	VGK	37	2.5	2.5	0	-2.5
2026-06-11	VGK	50	4.1	3.8	2	-2.1	@	CAR	43	3.5	3.6	4	+0.5
2026-06-09	CAR	40	3.4	3.1	5	+1.6	@	VGK	36	2.5	2.4	3	+0.5
2026-06-06	CAR	57	3.5	3.2	4	+0.5	@	VGK	58	3.3	3.3	5	+1.7
2026-06-04	VGK	32	3.3	3.5	3	-0.3	@	CAR	51	2.9	2.7	4	+1.1
2026-06-02	VGK	38	4.7	4.8	5	+0.3	@	CAR	45	2.7	2.6	4	+1.3
2026-05-29	MTL	35	2.8	2.6	1	-1.8	@	CAR	42	5.2	5.1	6	+0.8
2026-05-27	CAR	71	6.5	6.4	4	-2.5	@	MTL	24	1.0	1.0	0	-1.0
2026-05-26	COL	29	1.9	1.9	1	-0.9	@	VGK	44	3.3	3.4	2	-1.3
2026-05-25	CAR	57	4.5	4.3	3	-1.5	@	MTL	28	1.8	1.8	2	+0.2
2026-05-24	COL	49	3.7	3.6	3	-0.7	@	VGK	36	4.2	4.3	5	+0.8
2026-05-23	MTL	18	1.6	1.6	2	+0.4	@	CAR	47	2.8	2.7	3	+0.2
2026-05-22	VGK	32	2.9	3.0	3	+0.1	@	COL	47	2.4	2.4	1	-1.4
2026-05-21	MTL	32	3.5	3.6	6	+2.5	@	CAR	51	3.3	3.2	2	-1.3
2026-05-20	VGK	40	4.7	5.0	4	-0.7	@	COL	56	3.1	3.0	2	-1.1
2026-05-18	MTL	48	2.9	2.9	3	+0.1	@	BUF	64	4.5	4.5	2	-2.5
2026-05-16	BUF	50	5.1	5.1	8	+2.9	@	MTL	35	2.6	2.4	3	+0.4
2026-05-14	MTL	39	3.7	3.5	6	+2.3	@	BUF	57	3.8	3.8	3	-0.8
2026-05-14	VGK	37	3.8	3.8	5	+1.2	@	ANA	56	3.1	2.9	1	-2.1
2026-05-13	MIN	34	2.0	2.0	3	+1.0	@	COL	64	3.5	3.4	4	+0.5
2026-05-12	BUF	38	3.5	3.5	3	-0.5	@	MTL	45	3.6	3.4	2	-1.6
2026-05-12	ANA	54	2.8	2.7	2	-0.8	@	VGK	50	4.0	4.0	3	-1.0
2026-05-11	COL	54	6.0	5.8	5	-1.0	@	MIN	37	2.7	2.6	2	-0.7
2026-05-10	BUF	43	3.6	3.5	2	-1.6	@	MTL	46	5.9	5.7	6	+0.1
2026-05-10	VGK	25	1.6	1.7	3	+1.4	@	ANA	42	2.4	2.3	4	+1.6
2026-05-09	CAR	58	3.3	3.2	3	-0.3	@	PHI	31	2.9	2.8	2	-0.9
2026-05-09	COL	59	3.3	3.2	1	-2.3	@	MIN	46	4.1	4.3	5	+0.9
2026-05-08	MTL	45	4.3	4.4	5	+0.7	@	BUF	44	2.3	2.3	1	-1.3
2026-05-08	VGK	42	4.4	4.6	6	+1.6	@	ANA	48	2.6	2.5	2	-0.6
2026-05-07	CAR	50	4.1	3.9	4	-0.1	@	PHI	24	2.0	2.0	1	-1.0
2026-05-06	MTL	41	2.8	2.7	2	-0.8	@	BUF	31	2.7	2.7	4	+1.3
2026-05-06	ANA	41	3.3	3.3	3	-0.3	@	VGK	32	2.2	2.1	1	-1.2
2026-05-05	MIN	51	3.5	3.4	2	-1.5	@	COL	35	3.0	3.1	5	+2.0
2026-05-04	PHI	46	3.9	3.8	2	-1.9	@	CAR	64	4.8	4.5	3	-1.8
2026-05-04	ANA	52	3.4	3.5	1	-2.4	@	VGK	41	3.4	3.4	3	-0.4
2026-05-03	MTL	23	0.8	0.8	2	+1.2	@	TBL	41	3.0	3.0	1	-2.0
2026-05-03	MIN	49	3.0	2.9	6	+3.0	@	COL	56	4.5	4.3	9	+4.5
2026-05-02	PHI	30	2.3	2.0	0	-2.3	@	CAR	35	2.6	2.6	3	+0.4
2026-05-01	TBL	64	4.8	4.8	1	-3.8	@	MTL	51	4.6	4.4	0	-4.6
2026-05-01	BUF	41	4.3	4.5	4	-0.3	@	BOS	39	1.9	1.9	1	-0.9
2026-05-01	VGK	41	2.9	3.0	5	+2.1	@	UTA	46	2.8	2.8	1	-1.8
2026-04-30	DAL	34	2.1	2.0	2	-0.1	@	MIN	36	3.6	3.2	5	+1.4
2026-04-30	EDM	45	2.9	2.8	2	-0.9	@	ANA	47	4.6	4.5	5	+0.4
2026-04-29	MTL	33	2.5	2.4	3	+0.5	@	TBL	47	2.8	2.8	2	-0.8
2026-04-29	PIT	72	4.5	4.6	0	-4.5	@	PHI	39	3.1	3.0	1	-2.1
2026-04-29	UTA	61	3.5	3.5	4	+0.5	@	VGK	53	3.6	3.7	5	+1.4
2026-04-28	BOS	46	3.2	3.4	2	-1.2	@	BUF	52	3.1	3.0	1	-2.1
2026-04-28	MIN	39	3.5	3.8	4	+0.5	@	DAL	43	2.7	2.7	2	-0.7
2026-04-28	ANA	43	2.2	2.1	1	-1.2	@	EDM	30	2.1	2.2	4	+1.9
2026-04-27	PHI	42	2.1	2.1	2	-0.1	@	PIT	42	4.0	4.1	3	-1.0

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