Recent Games xG - NHL Predictions
Recent Games - xG Analysis
Game-by-game comparison of expected goals (xG) vs actual goals. See which teams are outperforming or underperforming their shot quality.
xG = neutral model (score-independent shot quality). Ctx = contextual model (accounts for score differential — trailing teams tend to take more desperation shots). A large gap between xG and Ctx can indicate a team was chasing the game.
Last 50 Games
Diff = Goals - xG. Positive (green) = outperformed xG, negative (red) = underperformed.
| Date | Away | Shots | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | Home | Shots | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | MTL | 48 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 | @ | BUF | 64 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2 | -2.5 |
| 2026-05-16 | BUF | 50 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 8 | +2.9 | @ | MTL | 35 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MTL | 39 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 6 | +2.3 | @ | BUF | 57 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| 2026-05-14 | VGK | 37 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5 | +1.2 | @ | ANA | 56 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.1 |
| 2026-05-13 | MIN | 34 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3 | +1.0 | @ | COL | 64 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 |
| 2026-05-12 | BUF | 38 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 | @ | MTL | 45 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 |
| 2026-05-12 | ANA | 54 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 | @ | VGK | 50 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| 2026-05-11 | COL | 54 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | @ | MIN | 37 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| 2026-05-10 | BUF | 43 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 | @ | MTL | 46 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 |
| 2026-05-10 | VGK | 25 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3 | +1.4 | @ | ANA | 42 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 4 | +1.6 |
| 2026-05-09 | CAR | 58 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 | @ | PHI | 31 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | COL | 59 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.3 | @ | MIN | 46 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.9 |
| 2026-05-08 | MTL | 45 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.7 | @ | BUF | 44 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 2026-05-08 | VGK | 42 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6 | +1.6 | @ | ANA | 48 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 2026-05-07 | CAR | 50 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 | @ | PHI | 24 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1 | -1.0 |
| 2026-05-06 | MTL | 41 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 | @ | BUF | 31 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4 | +1.3 |
| 2026-05-06 | ANA | 41 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 | @ | VGK | 32 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | MIN | 51 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.5 | @ | COL | 35 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 5 | +2.0 |
| 2026-05-04 | PHI | 46 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | @ | CAR | 64 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3 | -1.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | ANA | 52 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 | @ | VGK | 41 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 2026-05-03 | MTL | 23 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2 | +1.2 | @ | TBL | 41 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1 | -2.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | MIN | 49 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 6 | +3.0 | @ | COL | 56 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 9 | +4.5 |
| 2026-05-02 | PHI | 30 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 | @ | CAR | 35 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.4 |
| 2026-05-01 | TBL | 64 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 | @ | MTL | 51 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | BUF | 41 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.3 | @ | BOS | 39 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| 2026-05-01 | VGK | 41 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 5 | +2.1 | @ | UTA | 46 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 2026-04-30 | DAL | 34 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2 | -0.1 | @ | MIN | 36 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 5 | +1.4 |
| 2026-04-30 | EDM | 45 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 | @ | ANA | 47 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MTL | 33 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 | @ | TBL | 47 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | PIT | 72 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 | @ | PHI | 39 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.1 |
| 2026-04-29 | UTA | 61 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 | @ | VGK | 53 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.4 |
| 2026-04-28 | BOS | 47 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.3 | @ | BUF | 52 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.1 |
| 2026-04-28 | MIN | 39 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4 | +0.5 | @ | DAL | 43 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.7 |
| 2026-04-28 | ANA | 43 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.2 | @ | EDM | 30 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 4 | +1.9 |
| 2026-04-27 | PHI | 42 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 | @ | PIT | 42 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| 2026-04-27 | VGK | 62 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5 | +0.9 | @ | UTA | 45 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 4 | +1.6 |
| 2026-04-26 | BUF | 54 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 6 | +2.0 | @ | BOS | 40 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| 2026-04-26 | COL | 47 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 | @ | LAK | 37 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | TBL | 43 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3 | -1.0 | @ | MTL | 32 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| 2026-04-26 | EDM | 32 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 | @ | ANA | 51 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.0 |
| 2026-04-25 | CAR | 52 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | @ | OTT | 39 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.6 |
| 2026-04-25 | DAL | 66 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 | @ | MIN | 63 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.7 |
| 2026-04-25 | PIT | 42 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.3 | @ | PHI | 42 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2 | -1.0 |
| 2026-04-24 | TBL | 30 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.7 | @ | MTL | 38 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 2026-04-24 | VGK | 55 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.6 | @ | UTA | 34 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 4 | +2.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | EDM | 40 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 | @ | ANA | 62 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 7 | +3.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | BUF | 43 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.3 | @ | BOS | 36 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.8 |
| 2026-04-23 | CAR | 46 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | @ | OTT | 32 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 2026-04-23 | COL | 43 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4 | +0.3 | @ | LAK | 41 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 2026-04-22 | PIT | 52 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.8 | @ | PHI | 41 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5 | +1.2 |
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