Recent Games xG - NHL Predictions
Recent Games - xG Analysis
Game-by-game comparison of expected goals (xG) vs actual goals. See which teams are outperforming or underperforming their shot quality.
xG = neutral model (score-independent shot quality). Ctx = contextual model (accounts for score differential — trailing teams tend to take more desperation shots). A large gap between xG and Ctx can indicate a team was chasing the game.
Last 50 Games
Diff = Goals - xG. Positive (green) = outperformed xG, negative (red) = underperformed.
| Date | Away | Unblocked attempts | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | Home | Unblocked attempts | xG | Ctx | Goals | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | UTA | 56 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1 | -3.8 | @ | BOS | 29 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 6 | +3.7 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 30 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4 | +1.8 | @ | BUF | 44 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.8 |
| 2026-10-08 | NSH | 35 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5 | +1.5 | @ | MTL | 50 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2 | -1.8 |
| 2026-10-08 | PHI | 41 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1 | -2.7 | @ | OTT | 36 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2 | -0.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | MIN | 47 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.2 | @ | TBL | 50 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 2026-10-08 | VAN | 29 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | +0.0 | @ | CAR | 46 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 7 | +2.0 |
| 2026-10-08 | CHI | 35 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.4 | @ | NYI | 27 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 4 | +0.9 |
| 2026-10-08 | SJS | 38 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.6 | @ | STL | 40 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.4 |
| 2026-10-08 | COL | 46 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 7 | +4.1 | @ | CGY | 46 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 2026-10-08 | TOR | 41 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.8 | @ | VGK | 69 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | PIT | 42 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.7 | @ | WSH | 45 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.1 |
| 2026-10-07 | COL | 56 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 | @ | WPG | 36 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3 | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-07 | EDM | 34 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 5 | +2.3 | @ | ANA | 53 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.3 |
| 2026-10-06 | NSH | 40 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4 | +0.0 | @ | TOR | 56 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5 | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | CAR | 49 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6 | +1.0 | @ | MTL | 29 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 4 | +1.7 |
| 2026-10-06 | OTT | 35 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.3 | @ | DET | 45 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.2 |
| 2026-10-06 | UTA | 46 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5 | +0.7 | @ | NJD | 44 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | NYI | 31 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2 | -0.3 | @ | NYR | 40 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5 | +0.4 |
| 2026-10-06 | MIN | 30 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.1 | @ | BUF | 46 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 2026-10-06 | STL | 46 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2 | -1.2 | @ | CHI | 33 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4 | +1.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | VGK | 44 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.3 | @ | SEA | 35 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 2026-10-06 | FLA | 46 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.9 | @ | LAK | 32 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.9 |
| 2026-10-05 | PHI | 25 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.8 | @ | TBL | 51 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.6 |
| 2026-10-05 | OTT | 37 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4 | +1.5 | @ | BOS | 33 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| 2026-10-05 | WPG | 48 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.9 | @ | PIT | 47 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.4 |
| 2026-10-05 | SJS | 20 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.7 | @ | DAL | 43 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.6 |
| 2026-10-04 | WPG | 41 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3 | -0.0 | @ | DET | 58 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2 | -2.8 |
| 2026-10-04 | UTA | 43 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2 | -2.2 | @ | NYR | 35 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.3 |
| 2026-10-04 | FLA | 51 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2 | -1.8 | @ | ANA | 31 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.6 |
| 2026-10-04 | CGY | 56 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.1 | @ | SEA | 45 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 6 | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | VGK | 40 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 | @ | VAN | 28 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | +0.4 |
| 2026-10-03 | CHI | 30 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.4 | @ | BUF | 51 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4 | -0.1 |
| 2026-10-03 | OTT | 44 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3 | -1.7 | @ | TOR | 48 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2 | -1.3 |
| 2026-10-03 | WSH | 41 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.6 | @ | TBL | 48 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.1 |
| 2026-10-03 | CAR | 62 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.4 | @ | PHI | 29 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | MTL | 47 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 5 | +2.1 | @ | PIT | 40 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 6 | +2.8 |
| 2026-10-03 | UTA | 48 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.0 | @ | CBJ | 34 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1 | -1.6 |
| 2026-10-03 | SEA | 28 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.7 | @ | EDM | 42 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | NJD | 57 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.8 | @ | NYI | 42 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 6 | +2.3 |
| 2026-10-03 | DAL | 47 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 | @ | NSH | 39 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2 | -0.4 |
| 2026-10-03 | BOS | 39 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.6 | @ | MIN | 38 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4 | -0.1 |
| 2026-10-03 | STL | 38 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.9 | @ | COL | 49 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 6 | +2.4 |
| 2026-10-03 | CGY | 41 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.9 | @ | VAN | 39 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | LAK | 58 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4 | -0.1 | @ | SJS | 35 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 5 | +3.1 |
| 2026-10-02 | NYR | 31 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 | @ | DET | 29 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.7 |
| 2026-10-02 | WSH | 34 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 | @ | CAR | 52 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2 | -2.0 |
| 2026-10-02 | BOS | 53 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4 | +0.9 | @ | WPG | 56 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3 | -1.1 |
| 2026-10-02 | STL | 30 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4 | +0.3 | @ | DAL | 43 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0 | -3.0 |
| 2026-10-02 | ANA | 32 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 4 | +1.3 | @ | VGK | 45 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 2026-10-01 | PHI | 31 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.1 | @ | NJD | 62 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
View: xG Leaderboards | Today's Predictions | Full Schedule