Expected Goals (xG) in Hockey | NHL
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality by predicting the probability each shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle, shot type, and game situation. Our xG model is trained on thousands of NHL shots.
Key Metrics:
• xG/G: Expected goals per game (offensive threat)
• xGA/G: Expected goals against per game (defensive exposure)
• Net xG/G: xG/G minus xGA/G (overall xG dominance, >0 is good)
• xG%: Team's share of total xG (xGF / (xGF + xGA) × 100)
• Finishing Rate: Goals / xG (>1.0 = above expectation)
• GSAx: Goals Saved Above Expected (xGA - GA, positive = good goaltending)
Team xG Rankings (2025-26)
Click column headers to sort. Net xG/G >0.3 in green, <0 in red. GSAx >0 = good goaltending.
| Team | GP | xG/G | xGA/G | Net xG/G | xG% | Finish | GSAx |
|---|
Shot Quality by Shot Type (2025-26)
Shot Share and xG Share are league-wide percentages for each shot type.
| Shot Type | Shots | Shot Share | xG | xG Share | xG/Shot | Goal Rate |
|---|
Shot Quality by Zone (2025-26)
Zone codes follow NHL play-by-play conventions (OZ, NZ, DZ).
| Zone | Shots | Shot Share | xG | xG Share | xG/Shot | Goal Rate |
|---|
Player xG Leaderboard (2025-26)
Click column headers to sort. xG/Shot = total xG / total shots (shot quality).
| Player | Team | GP | Shots | xG | Goals | S% | xG/Shot |
|---|
S% = Shooting Percentage | xG/Shot = Expected Goals per shot attempt
Download Data
About the xG Model: Our expected goals model uses gradient boosting on shot distance, angle, shot type, game situation (even/power play), rebounds, and rush attempts. The model is calibrated on thousands of NHL shots to provide accurate probability estimates.
View: Today's Predictions | Model Performance | Playoff Odds