Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-05-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 42.3%

BUF: 57.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.24

BUF: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	BOS	BUF
Season SV%	0.903	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	22	4	84.6%	4.51	6	0.51
BUF	Alex Lyon	26	25	1	96.2%	1.86	1	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.62
1	BUF	19	2	1.63
2	BOS	10	1	0.70
2	BUF	12	1	0.80
3	BOS	18	0	0.54
3	BUF	10	3	2.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown