Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-01 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 49.7%

TBL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.19

TBL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MTL	TBL
Season SV%	0.889	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	33	32	1	97.0%	4.85	2	3.85
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	30	0	100.0%	4.37	2	4.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.85
1	TBL	17	1	1.15
2	MTL	16	0	1.71
2	TBL	15	0	0.66
3	MTL	14	2	1.47
3	TBL	25	0	2.08
4	MTL	5	0	0.34
4	TBL	7	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9