Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-05-03 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 70.5%

MTL: 29.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.50

MTL: 2.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TBL	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	9	7	2	77.8%	0.81	0	-1.19
MTL	Jakub Dobes	29	28	1	96.6%	2.97	1	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	1.04
1	MTL	12	0	0.47
2	TBL	16	0	1.31
2	MTL	3	0	0.15
3	TBL	13	0	0.62
3	MTL	8	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown