Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-05-01 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 47.7%

VGK: 52.3%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.95

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	UTA	VGK
Season SV%	0.895	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	21	5	80.8%	2.96	1	-2.04
VGK	Carter Hart	23	22	1	95.7%	2.80	1	1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • UTA at home vs VGK: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	UTA
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	11	0	0.94
1	VGK	16	0	1.18
2	UTA	13	0	0.67
2	VGK	16	0	0.86
3	UTA	22	1	1.19
3	VGK	9	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown