Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-05-08 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 67.4%
MTL: 32.6%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.22
MTL: 2.34
Total Goals
Median: 4.4
Over 5.5: 33%
Over 6.5: 18%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | BUF | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.943 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | BUF 3 - 6 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-12 | MTL 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-05-10 | MTL 6 - 2 BUF | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-08 | BUF 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-06 | BUF 4 - 2 MTL | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:36 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:27 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:47 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:22 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:54 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:59 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 67.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 2.3
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