Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 42.6%

BUF: 57.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

BUF: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.889	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	26	2	92.9%	3.53	2	1.53
BUF	Alex Lyon	37	31	6	83.8%	5.67	7	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • MTL at home vs BUF: 7-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	2	1.59
1	BUF	12	2	1.35
2	MTL	20	3	2.23
2	BUF	15	0	0.76
3	MTL	10	2	1.85
3	BUF	16	0	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown