Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2026-05-10 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 46.4%
BUF: 53.6%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.79
BUF: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 34%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | MTL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.943 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | BUF 3 - 6 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-12 | MTL 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-05-10 | MTL 6 - 2 BUF | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-08 | BUF 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-05-06 | BUF 4 - 2 MTL | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:31 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:05 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:43 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:17 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:46 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:46 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:14 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 2.8 - 2.9
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