Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-05-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 40.7%

BUF: 59.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.87

BUF: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.889	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	22	19	3	86.4%	3.45	1	0.45
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	29	2	93.5%	3.45	3	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • MTL at home vs BUF: 7-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-17	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	2	1.09
1	BUF	21	1	1.56
2	MTL	15	1	1.23
2	BUF	10	0	0.97
3	MTL	19	0	1.14
3	BUF	7	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown