Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-05-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 72.5%

MTL: 27.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.49

MTL: 2.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.1

Over 5.5: 39%

Over 6.5: 24%

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF
2026-05-08	BUF 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-06	BUF 4 - 2 MTL	BUF	BUF

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	02:00	BUF	Goal
1	06:31	BUF	Goal
1	07:45	BUF	Goal
1	07:54	BUF	Goal
1	10:15	BUF	Goal
2	08:01	BUF	Goal
2	16:15	MTL	Goal
2	17:33	MTL	Goal
3	03:32	MTL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.1