Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-05-07 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 61.7%

CAR: 38.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.94

CAR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	0.910	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	31	27	4	87.1%	3.90	2	-0.10
CAR	Frederik Andersen	19	18	1	94.7%	1.99	1	0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.82
1	CAR	19	2	1.62
2	PHI	8	1	0.76
2	CAR	13	0	0.90
3	PHI	7	0	0.41
3	CAR	18	0	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown