Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-05-10 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 48.6%

VGK: 51.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.23

VGK: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	ANA	VGK
Season SV%	0.888	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	21	18	3	85.7%	1.89	1	-1.11
VGK	Carter Hart	23	19	4	82.6%	2.32	0	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ANA at home vs VGK: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	VGK 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	VGK
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	0	0.79
1	VGK	6	0	0.75
2	ANA	16	0	0.93
2	VGK	11	0	0.50
3	ANA	10	0	0.60
3	VGK	11	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown