Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-20 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 58.6%

VGK: 41.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.15

VGK: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.71
1	VGK	15	1	1.23
2	COL	21	0	0.89
2	VGK	13	1	0.80
3	COL	20	0	1.45
3	VGK	12	5	2.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9