Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-05-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 61.6%

VGK: 38.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.29

VGK: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.41
1	VGK	15	1	1.03
2	COL	22	0	1.18
2	VGK	4	0	0.10
3	COL	14	0	0.78
3	VGK	13	2	1.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8