Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-05-24 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 36.0%

COL: 64.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.78

COL: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	1	1.27
1	COL	19	2	1.82
2	VGK	14	2	1.76
2	COL	20	2	1.24
3	VGK	10	2	1.32
3	COL	10	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3