Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-06-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 62.4%

VGK: 37.6%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.49

VGK: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	CAR	VGK
Season SV%	0.865	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	26	23	3	88.5%	3.46	6	0.46
VGK	Carter Hart	26	22	4	84.6%	2.73	0	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CAR at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	VGK
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	0	1.24
1	VGK	5	0	0.30
2	CAR	12	0	0.52
2	VGK	12	2	1.13
3	CAR	12	0	0.67
3	VGK	14	4	2.00
4	CAR	7	0	0.31
4	VGK	1	0	0.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6