Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-06-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 44.3%

CAR: 55.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.85

CAR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	VGK	CAR
Season SV%	0.883	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	33	29	4	87.9%	3.24	1	-0.76
CAR	Frederik Andersen	35	30	5	85.7%	3.33	2	-1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VGK at home vs CAR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	VGK
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.20
1	CAR	13	0	0.61
2	VGK	20	2	1.47
2	CAR	11	0	0.57
3	VGK	14	0	1.10
3	CAR	19	1	1.56
4	VGK	10	0	0.48
4	CAR	11	0	0.48
5	VGK	4	0	0.08
5	CAR	3	0	0.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2