Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-06-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 47.2%

CAR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.91

CAR: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	VGK	CAR
Season SV%	0.883	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	28	23	5	82.1%	3.08	2	-1.92
CAR	Brandon Bussi	21	18	3	85.7%	2.39	0	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VGK at home vs CAR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	VGK
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.91
1	CAR	19	1	1.34
2	VGK	10	0	0.57
2	CAR	12	0	0.61
3	VGK	13	0	0.92
3	CAR	9	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown