Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-06-11 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 66.4%

VGK: 33.6%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.18

VGK: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	CAR	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	25	23	2	92.0%	3.76	4	1.76
VGK	Carter Hart	24	20	4	83.3%	3.61	4	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CAR at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	VGK
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	11	0	0.26
1	VGK	13	1	0.91
2	CAR	16	1	1.50
2	VGK	16	1	1.09
3	CAR	16	3	1.84
3	VGK	21	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown