Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-10-01 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 61.7%

PHI: 38.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.31

PHI: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

PHI

J. Woll

Stat	NJD	PHI
Season SV%	0.912	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	25	23	2	92.0%	1.79	1	-0.21
PHI	J. Woll	44	41	3	93.2%	4.11	3	1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • NJD at home vs PHI: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-01	NJD 3 - 2 PHI	NJD	NJD
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	19	0	1.07
1	PHI	7	0	0.34
2	NJD	23	3	1.68
2	PHI	12	0	0.72
3	NJD	16	0	0.92
3	PHI	9	0	0.42
4	NJD	4	0	0.44
4	PHI	3	1	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6