Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-10-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 56.0%

TBL: 44.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.42

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NYR	TBL
Season SV%	0.910	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	25	24	1	96.0%	2.84	1	1.84
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	20	5	80.0%	4.54	5	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • NYR at home vs TBL: 9-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NYR 4 - 1 TBL	NYR	TBL
2026-10-01	NYR 5 - 1 TBL	NYR	NYR
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.55
1	TBL	17	0	1.23
2	NYR	17	0	1.51
2	TBL	14	1	0.99
3	NYR	11	5	2.48
3	TBL	9	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown