Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-10-01 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 44.2%

BUF: 55.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.02

BUF: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CBJ	BUF
Season SV%	0.909	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	26	23	3	88.5%	2.45	0	-0.55
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	17	6	73.9%	2.60	2	-3.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • CBJ at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-06	BUF 5 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-10-01	CBJ 6 - 3 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	CBJ
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	1.00
1	BUF	11	0	0.55
2	CBJ	8	0	0.44
2	BUF	19	0	1.32
3	CBJ	9	2	1.16
3	BUF	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown