Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-10-01 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 6 Seattle Kraken

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 41.4%

SEA: 58.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.87

SEA: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	CGY	SEA
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	32	26	6	81.2%	3.90	3	-2.10
SEA	Joey Daccord	25	24	1	96.0%	2.48	0	1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CGY at home vs SEA: 5-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-11-04	SEA 2 - 1 CGY	SEA	CGY
2026-10-30	CGY 6 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY
2026-10-04	SEA 6 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-10-01	CGY 1 - 6 SEA	SEA	SEA
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.89
1	SEA	7	0	0.43
2	CGY	12	0	0.87
2	SEA	16	1	1.53
3	CGY	17	0	0.72
3	SEA	23	2	1.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown