Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-10-01 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Florida Panthers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 38.1%

FLA: 61.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.31

FLA: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 45%

Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

FLA

A. Schmid

Stat	SJS	FLA
Season SV%	0.896	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	23	3	88.5%	3.65	2	0.65
FLA	A. Schmid	32	28	4	87.5%	3.09	1	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs FLA: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-01	SJS 4 - 3 FLA	SJS	FLA
2026-01-19	FLA 1 - 4 SJS	SJS	FLA
2025-11-08	SJS 3 - 1 FLA	SJS	FLA
2025-01-25	SJS 2 - 7 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-07	FLA 3 - 1 SJS	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	0.65
1	FLA	13	0	0.84
2	SJS	12	1	1.19
2	FLA	21	1	1.72
3	SJS	13	0	0.57
3	FLA	15	1	1.09
4	SJS	8	0	0.69
4	FLA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.3 - 3.0