New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-10-02 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 2 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 53.5%

NYR: 46.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.20

NYR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

NYR

Dylan Garand - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	DET	NYR
Season SV%	0.893	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	21	19	2	90.5%	3.02	3	1.02
NYR	Dylan Garand	22	22	0	100.0%	1.62	1	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DET at home vs NYR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DET 0 - 2 NYR	NYR	DET
2026-04-04	NYR 4 - 1 DET	NYR	NYR
2025-11-16	NYR 1 - 2 DET	DET	NYR
2025-11-07	DET 1 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-11-09	DET 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	1	0.94
1	NYR	11	0	0.65
2	DET	12	0	0.58
2	NYR	10	1	0.78
3	DET	4	0	0.10
3	NYR	10	2	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown